How to apply for Research Assistant

About Forecasting Research Institute

The Forecasting Research Institute develops forecasting methods to improve decision-making. It runs tournaments and experiments to aggregate forecasts. This is a fit for someone who wants to work on quantitative forecasting research in a remote, part-time setting.

About the role

The Research Assistant supports forecasting research projects through literature reviews, data analysis, and tournament administration. You will distill complex topics into forecastable questions, aggregate forecasts from tournaments and experiments, and collect historical data underlying forecasting questions. The role is a part-time contractor position, 10+ hours per week preferred, with an initial 3-month term and potential extension.

A typical day

A typical day might involve reviewing literature on a topic, drafting forecastable questions, and cleaning data from a recent tournament. You may also respond to forecasters' clarification requests and help run a forecasting event. The work is remote and self-directed, with 10+ hours per week.

Who Forecasting Research Institute is looking for

• Has strong writing skills and can distill complex topics into clear, forecastable questions.
• Is familiar with quantitative forecasting methods and can aggregate forecasts from tournaments and experiments.
• Can work self-directed in a remote environment with minimal supervision.
• Is comfortable conducting literature reviews, analyzing data, and responding to forecasters' clarification requests.

Tips for this application

• Show you understand forecasting tournaments and how they differ from simple surveys or polls.
• Provide a writing sample that takes a complex topic and turns it into a clear, forecastable question.
• Describe any experience aggregating forecasts or analyzing quantitative data from experiments.
• Explain how you manage your time and stay self-directed in a remote, part-time contractor role.
• Confirm your availability for 10+ hours per week and an initial 3-month term.

What to cover in your cover letter

Emphasize your ability to write clearly and distill complex topics into forecastable questions. Highlight any experience with quantitative forecasting or aggregating forecasts from tournaments or experiments. Show you can work independently in a remote setting. Mention your availability for 10+ hours per week and a 3-month term.

Research before applying

• Read the Forecasting Research Institute website to understand their forecasting methods and past projects.
• Look for published papers or reports from the institute on tournaments and experiments.
• Check if they have any public forecasting questions or tournaments you can review.
• Find out who leads the research and what topics they focus on.

Likely interview topics

Based on the job description, expect questions about:

• How would you turn a complex news topic into a forecastable question?
• Describe your experience with quantitative forecasting or forecast aggregation.
• How do you handle clarification requests from forecasters when data is ambiguous?
• Give an example of a literature review you conducted and how you summarized it.
• How do you stay self-directed and organized in a remote, part-time role?

Common mistakes to avoid

• Applying without any evidence of quantitative forecasting familiarity.
• Writing a cover letter that does not mention specific forecasting methods or tournaments.
• Ignoring the part-time contractor nature and the 3-month initial term.