How to apply for Lead Economist, Windfall Research

About Windfall Trust

Windfall is a nonprofit focused on preparing society for economic disruption from transformative AI. It works at the intersection of economic research and policy, with outputs aimed at treasuries, central banks, and international institutions. The research infrastructure is young, so early hires shape methods, data, and framing.

About the role

The Lead Economist owns Windfall's core research products and serves as the economic authority behind published work. Depending on strengths, this could mean leading the Policy Atlas, the Preparedness Map, the Scenarios Lab, or evaluating scenario modeling assumptions. The role covers the full research arc: design, data, analysis, drafting, external review, and defending results under scrutiny.

A typical day

A typical day might involve reviewing data and methods for one of Windfall's research products, drafting sections of a report, and meeting with the CEO or Director of Research to align on framing. You might also prepare for external review or respond to technical questions from government or institutional partners. Because the research infrastructure is young, part of the day is spent making and documenting foundational methodological choices.

Who Windfall Trust is looking for

• Extensive background in labor economics, fiscal or welfare analysis, quantitative modeling, or development economics.
• Experience owning research products end-to-end, including methodological design, data work, writing, and external review.
• Comfortable defending results to senior economists at treasuries, central banks, and academic institutions.
• Able to make foundational methodological and data choices in a young research environment and accept their consequences.

Tips for this application

• In your cover letter or CV, name which Windfall product you are best positioned to own (Policy Atlas, Preparedness Map, Scenarios Lab, or scenario assumption review) and explain why.
• Provide a concrete example of a research product you owned from design through external review, including how you handled pushback from senior economists or policymakers.
• Show familiarity with Windfall's focus on AI-driven economic disruption. Reference specific work from windfalltrust.org if available.
• Since the role reports to the CEO and Director of Research, address how you work directly with senior leadership and a small research team.
• Be explicit about your technical stack for quantitative modeling and data analysis, and how you would build research infrastructure from a young state.

What to cover in your cover letter

["Your specific area of expertise (labor, fiscal, welfare, quantitative modeling, or development) and how it maps to one of Windfall's research products.", 'A track record of owning research from methodological design to publication and external defense.', 'How you would make foundational choices about methods, data, and framing in a young research environment.', 'Your ability to communicate economic results to non-academic audiences such as treasuries, central banks, and international institutions.']

Research before applying

• Read Windfall's existing Policy Atlas and any published research to understand current methods and framing.
• Look into the stated purpose of the Preparedness Map and Scenarios Lab to see how they connect to Windfall's overall goals.
• Review Windfall's engagement with national governments and international institutions to understand the policy audience.
• Check the backgrounds of the CEO and Director of Research to understand their research priorities and working style.

Likely interview topics

Based on the job description, expect questions about:

• How would you design or improve the Preparedness Map as a cross-country index of AI economic exposure and absorption capacity?
• Walk us through a time you defended a contentious economic result to a skeptical senior audience.
• What methodological choices would you prioritize in the first six months of the Scenarios Lab, and why?
• How do you evaluate the assumptions behind scenario modeling that translates narrative AI futures into distributional and fiscal outcomes?
• How would you build research infrastructure from a young state while working with a small team and external technical partners?

Common mistakes to avoid

• Submitting a generic economics cover letter that does not mention Windfall's specific research products or AI disruption focus.
• Claiming expertise in all areas (labor, fiscal, welfare, modeling, development) instead of being clear about your strongest fit.
• Focusing only on academic publication record without showing how you would defend results to policy audiences like treasuries or central banks.