Application Guide

How to Apply for Economist, Scenarios and Modelling

at Windfall Trust

🏢 About Windfall Trust

Windfall Trust is a nonprofit dedicated to preparing society for the economic disruptions caused by transformative AI. Their mission is unique and forward-looking, offering an opportunity to work at the intersection of AI and economics, shaping policies that could mitigate major societal risks.

About This Role

As the Economist for Scenarios and Modelling, you will build Windfall's quantitative modeling capability, translating AI futures into economic parameters and distributional outcomes. Your work will directly inform policy simulations and costings, providing critical evidence for decision-making in an emerging field.

💡 A Day in the Life

A typical day might involve refining the macroeconomic model code, collaborating with the research team to define new AI scenarios, and documenting assumptions for stakeholders. You might also spend time analyzing data from various countries, running sensitivity analyses, and preparing visualizations for internal discussions or external reports.

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🎯 Who Windfall Trust Is Looking For

  • Expert in macroeconomic modeling with a strong grasp of scenario analysis, including stress testing and sensitivity analysis.
  • Proficient in statistical methods and quantitative research, with experience handling data from multiple countries with varying statistical capacity.
  • Meticulous in reproducibility, documentation, and quality control, ensuring models are transparent and reliable.
  • Comfortable with ambiguity and able to design flexible models that can adapt to evolving AI scenarios.

📝 Tips for Applying to Windfall Trust

1

Highlight any experience with scenario modeling in climate, finance, or other fields, emphasizing your ability to quantify uncertain futures.

2

Showcase your technical skills, such as Python, R, or econometrics, and provide examples of reproducible research (e.g., GitHub repos).

3

Demonstrate your ability to work with international data, perhaps by mentioning projects involving cross-country comparisons or data-scarce environments.

4

Tailor your resume to emphasize your understanding of AI's potential economic impacts, even if from a personal or academic interest.

5

In your cover letter, explicitly connect your modeling skills to Windfall's mission of preparing for AI disruption, showing you've thought about the problem.

✉️ What to Emphasize in Your Cover Letter

['Your passion for using economics to address global risks, particularly those posed by AI.', 'Your experience in building scenario models that quantify uncertainty and policy responses.', 'Your ability to communicate complex quantitative results to non-specialists, as Windfall aims to influence policy.', 'Your commitment to open and reproducible research practices.']

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🔍 Research Before Applying

To stand out, make sure you've researched:

  • → Read Windfall's website and any published reports or blog posts to understand their current thinking on AI disruption.
  • → Familiarize yourself with the concept of 'transformative AI' and the economic literature on AI's impact on labor markets.
  • → Look into scenario modeling frameworks used by organizations like the IPCC or the World Bank for inspiration.
  • → Understand Windfall's target audience (policymakers, philanthropists) and how your models will be used to inform their decisions.
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💬 Prepare for These Interview Topics

Based on this role, you may be asked about:

1 How would you approach building a scenario model for AI-driven job displacement in low-income countries with limited data?
2 Describe a time you had to make a model robust to missing data or poor statistical capacity.
3 What macroeconomic indicators would you prioritize to capture the distributional effects of AI?
4 How do you ensure your models are transparent and reproducible for a nonprofit audience?
5 What are the key uncertainties in AI economic impact, and how would you incorporate them into a scenario framework?
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⚠️ Common Mistakes to Avoid

  • Don't submit a generic cover letter; it must clearly connect your skills to Windfall's specific mission and this role.
  • Avoid overemphasizing academic publications without showing practical modeling applications; they value actionable insights.
  • Don't ignore the reproducibility and documentation requirements; explicitly mention your practices to stand out.

📅 Application Timeline

This position is open until filled. However, we recommend applying as soon as possible as roles at mission-driven organizations tend to fill quickly.

Typical hiring timeline:

1

Application Review

1-2 weeks

2

Initial Screening

Phone call or written assessment

3

Interviews

1-2 rounds, usually virtual

✓

Offer

Congratulations!

Ready to Apply?

Good luck with your application to Windfall Trust!

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