Earth observation for displacement forecasting

1. Who is the Danish Refugee Council?
Founded in 1956, the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) is a leading international NGO and one of the few with a specific expertise in forced displacement. Active in 40 countries with 9,000 employees and supported by 7,500 volunteers, DRC protects, advocates, and builds sustainable futures for refugees and other displacement affected people and communities. DRC works during displacement at all stages: In the acute crisis, in displacement, when settling and integrating in a new place, or upon return. DRC provides protection and life-saving humanitarian assistance; supports displaced persons in becoming self-reliant and included into hosting societies; and works with civil society and responsible authorities to promote protection of rights and peaceful coexistence.

2. Purpose of the consultancy
The Danish Refugee Council Innovation, Data and Analysis Unit seeks proposals from organizations to assess the potential of using earth observation for displacement nowcasting and forecasting and provide the necessary tool/method/guidance to build the capacity internally in DRC to process earth observation data.

3. Background
Since 2021, DRC has been developing displacement forecasting models to predict short-term (3 months) displacement at the sub-national level. The forecasts are integrated into anticipatory action mechanisms, whereby forecasts above pre-defined threshold can lead to various pre-emptive actions being taken to prevent displacement or mitigate its impacts. The models are built on open-source data, and a key determinant of the model performance is the availability of the data. For both displacement data as well as data on the drivers of displacement, the availability and timeliness vary significantly from country to country.

4. Objective of the consultancy
The purpose of this consultancy is therefore to

1. Explore the utility of earth observation data to fill spatial and temporal gaps in sub-national displacement data, including timelier estimates of displacement between official reporting cycles
2. Explore the utility of earth observation data to enhance accuracy of forecasting model by providing additional inputs/indicators of drivers of displacement
3. Develop a guidance/method/tool to enable DRC to integrate earth observation data into displacement forecasting models going forward

5. Scope of work and Methodology
The organization will be required to prepare a detailed methodology and work plan indicating how
the objectives of the project will be achieved, and the support required from DRC. The main tasks related to achieving the above-mentioned objectives are:
Review relevant documentation on DRC displacement forecasting, existing data and data gaps

1. Map out existing relevant use of earth observation and determine specific focus areas that could add most value for DRC displacement forecasting work
2. Generate earth observation data in the identified focus areas and evaluate the contribution to the accuracy of the forecasting models in collaboration with DRC data scientists
3. Develop a method/tool/guidance that enables DRC data scientists to extract, analyse and store earth observation data going forward
4. Develop a final report with an overview of the approach, findings and recommendations for further advancement of earth observation for displacement

6. Deliverables
The Consultant will submit the following deliverables as mentioned below:

Phase 1 – Review
Expected deliverables: Inception
Indicative tasks:

• Kick-off workshop
• Review DRC approach to forecasting
• Map existing relevant use of earth observation
  Maximum timeframe: 5 working days

Phase 2 – Testing
Expected deliverables: Earth observation data set
Indicative tasks:

• Working meetings, discussions
• Data generation
• Working session with DRC data scientists to test and evaluate value of EO data
  Maximum timeframe: 20 working days

Phase 3 – Finalization
Expected deliverables: Guidance, Final report
Indicative tasks:

• Prepare first draft of guidance note, including code samples
• Provide final guidance note
• Provide short final report outlining key findings and recommendations from the work
  Maximum timeframe: 15 working days

The Consultant will provide the documentation via email.

7. Duration, timeline, and payment
The total expected duration to complete the assignment will be no more than 40 working days.
The consultant shall be prepared to complete the assignment no later than December 31, 2026.

8. Eligibility, qualification, and experience required
Essential:

• Experience with processing, analysing and generating insights from earth observation data
• Demonstrate knowledge of data engineering, databases and the skills to produce the relevant outputs
• Realization of similar projects for other organizations
• Skills to produce guidance for reproduction.

Desirable:

• Understanding of displacement and fragile contexts
• Understanding and experience working with humanitarian data
• Experience with forecasting models
• Eligibility:
  • The organization is a registered legal entity in its country of incorporation
• Experience:
  • A minimum of 3 years of proven delivery of services related to earth observation data.
• Skills and knowledge:
  • Working collaboratively and in iterative fashion with clients
  • Strong communication and project management skills
  • Knowledge of earth observation data and platforms and use cases in humanitarian sector
• Language requirements:
  • Written and spoken fluency in English

9. Technical supervision
The selected consultant will work under the supervision of:
• Senior Analyst
• Data science lead

10. Location and support
Remote - The Consultant will provide her/his own computer and mobile telephone

11. Travel
No travel is expected

1. Who is the Danish Refugee Council?
Founded in 1956, the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) is a leading international NGO and one of the few with a specific expertise in forced displacement. Active in 40 countries with 9,000 employees and supported by 7,500 volunteers, DRC protects, advocates, and builds sustainable futures for refugees and other displacement affected people and communities. DRC works during displacement at all stages: In the acute crisis, in displacement, when settling and integrating in a new place, or upon return. DRC provides protection and life-saving humanitarian assistance; supports displaced persons in becoming self-reliant and included into hosting societies; and works with civil society and responsible authorities to promote protection of rights and peaceful coexistence.

2. Purpose of the consultancy
The Danish Refugee Council Innovation, Data and Analysis Unit seeks proposals from organizations to assess the potential of using earth observation for displacement nowcasting and forecasting and provide the necessary tool/method/guidance to build the capacity internally in DRC to process earth observation data.

3. Background
Since 2021, DRC has been developing displacement forecasting models to predict short-term (3 months) displacement at the sub-national level. The forecasts are integrated into anticipatory action mechanisms, whereby forecasts above pre-defined threshold can lead to various pre-emptive actions being taken to prevent displacement or mitigate its impacts. The models are built on open-source data, and a key determinant of the model performance is the availability of the data. For both displacement data as well as data on the drivers of displacement, the availability and timeliness vary significantly from country to country.

4. Objective of the consultancy
The purpose of this consultancy is therefore to

1. Explore the utility of earth observation data to fill spatial and temporal gaps in sub-national displacement data, including timelier estimates of displacement between official reporting cycles
2. Explore the utility of earth observation data to enhance accuracy of forecasting model by providing additional inputs/indicators of drivers of displacement
3. Develop a guidance/method/tool to enable DRC to integrate earth observation data into displacement forecasting models going forward

5. Scope of work and Methodology
The organization will be required to prepare a detailed methodology and work plan indicating how
the objectives of the project will be achieved, and the support required from DRC. The main tasks related to achieving the above-mentioned objectives are:
Review relevant documentation on DRC displacement forecasting, existing data and data gaps

1. Map out existing relevant use of earth observation and determine specific focus areas that could add most value for DRC displacement forecasting work
2. Generate earth observation data in the identified focus areas and evaluate the contribution to the accuracy of the forecasting models in collaboration with DRC data scientists
3. Develop a method/tool/guidance that enables DRC data scientists to extract, analyse and store earth observation data going forward
4. Develop a final report with an overview of the approach, findings and recommendations for further advancement of earth observation for displacement

6. Deliverables
The Consultant will submit the following deliverables as mentioned below:

Phase 1 – Review
Expected deliverables: Inception
Indicative tasks:

• Kick-off workshop
• Review DRC approach to forecasting
• Map existing relevant use of earth observation
  Maximum timeframe: 5 working days

Phase 2 – Testing
Expected deliverables: Earth observation data set
Indicative tasks:

• Working meetings, discussions
• Data generation
• Working session with DRC data scientists to test and evaluate value of EO data
  Maximum timeframe: 20 working days

Phase 3 – Finalization
Expected deliverables: Guidance, Final report
Indicative tasks:

• Prepare first draft of guidance note, including code samples
• Provide final guidance note
• Provide short final report outlining key findings and recommendations from the work
  Maximum timeframe: 15 working days

The Consultant will provide the documentation via email.

7. Duration, timeline, and payment
The total expected duration to complete the assignment will be no more than 40 working days.
The consultant shall be prepared to complete the assignment no later than December 31, 2026.

8. Eligibility, qualification, and experience required
Essential:

• Experience with processing, analysing and generating insights from earth observation data
• Demonstrate knowledge of data engineering, databases and the skills to produce the relevant outputs
• Realization of similar projects for other organizations
• Skills to produce guidance for reproduction.

Desirable:

• Understanding of displacement and fragile contexts
• Understanding and experience working with humanitarian data
• Experience with forecasting models
• Eligibility:
  • The organization is a registered legal entity in its country of incorporation
• Experience:
  • A minimum of 3 years of proven delivery of services related to earth observation data.
• Skills and knowledge:
  • Working collaboratively and in iterative fashion with clients
  • Strong communication and project management skills
  • Knowledge of earth observation data and platforms and use cases in humanitarian sector
• Language requirements:
  • Written and spoken fluency in English

9. Technical supervision
The selected consultant will work under the supervision of:
• Senior Analyst
• Data science lead

10. Location and support
Remote - The Consultant will provide her/his own computer and mobile telephone

11. Travel
No travel is expected